Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2247 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 2247 SLC 07:50 → ORD 12:00 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1963 SLC 16:05 → ORD 20:12 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2247 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	ORD 12:00	19%	8%	0.7%	88%
AA 2883 American Flight history →	SLC 07:31	ORD 11:36	21%	11%	1.5%	85%
UA 1502 United Flight history →	SLC 08:00	ORD 12:20	21%	12%	1.0%	84%
UA 2762 United	SLC 19:27	ORD 23:39	26%	13%	0.8%	no record
DL 2413 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:21	ORD 21:29	31%	11%	0.7%	75%
DL 2377 Delta Flight history →	SLC 13:43	ORD 17:49	34%	17%	0.7%	72%
AA 1991 American	SLC 11:42	ORD 15:45	34%	20%	1.8%	no record
AA 3258 American Flight history →	SLC 15:24	ORD 19:47	36%	21%	1.4%	60%
AA 1873 American	SLC 17:20	ORD 21:34	36%	15%	1.0%	no record
UA 1382 United Flight history →	SLC 12:46	ORD 16:57	37%	21%	1.1%	76%worse than usual
UA 1963 United Flight history →	SLC 16:05	ORD 20:12	38%	19%	0.9%	73%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON