Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3892 SLC 10:57 → PSC 11:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 1712 SLC 22:45 → PSC 23:29 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3892 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:57	PSC 11:45	9%	4%	0.5%	89%
DL 3728 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:52	PSC 16:38	10%	4%	0.5%	88%
DL 1712 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	PSC 23:29	17%	5%	0.5%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON