Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3985 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 21:05	SUN 22:07	7%	2%	0.6%	96%
DL 3689 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:25	SUN 14:31	9%	2%	0.6%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	3h 35m Denver	DEN 12:17 → SUN 14:17UA 5554 · flown by SkyWest	7h 17m	99%	83%
United Details →	SLC 07:23 → LAX 08:38UA 5408 · flown by SkyWest	2h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 11:35 → SUN 15:00UA 5379 · flown by SkyWest	7h 37m	98%	83%
United Details →	SLC 14:28 → DEN 16:11UA 1662	3h 14m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	6h 58m	95%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON