tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2077 Delta Flight history → SLC 23:50 TPA 06:01 10% 3% 0.7% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 7h 59m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:40 → CVG 15:03DL 2273 2h 57m Hebron CVG 18:00 → TPA 20:16DL 1679 8h 36m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916 1h 18m Minneapolis MSP 12:47 → TPA 17:05DL 2264 7h 05m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289 2h 43m Detroit DTW 14:07 → TPA 16:45DL 1243 8h 45m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:33 → ATL 12:18DL 907 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 14:14 → TPA 15:56DL 1720 7h 23m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:49 → IAD 16:21UA 1322 1h 49m Dulles IAD 18:10 → TPA 20:43UA 1140 8h 54m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874 2h 43m Seattle SEA 11:45 → TPA 20:19DL 358 10h 29m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m Denver DEN 13:55 → TPA 19:33UA 2375 9h 03m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:00 → ORD 12:20UA 1502 54m Chicago ORD 13:14 → TPA 17:04UA 2244 7h 04m 75% 45%
DeltaDetails → SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835 46m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → TPA 17:59DL 1425 6h 04m 63% 45%
FrontierDetails → SLC 16:16 → DEN 17:55F9 4236 1h 04m Denver DEN 18:59 → TPA 00:36 +1F9 2746 6h 20m 65% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON