tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 3825 at 20:52, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 3825 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SLC 20:52 TUL 00:27 12% 5% 0.6% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 6h 44m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SLC 06:33 → ATL 12:18DL 907 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 8h 20m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 3h 46m Houston IAH 14:43 → TUL 16:34UA 6176 · flown by Mesa 8h 49m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 8h 54m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → TUL 00:00 +1DL 2043 7h 29m 91% 74%
AmericanDetails → SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:59 → TUL 12:14AA 2352 6h 14m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → SLC 13:00 → IAH 17:12UA 497 2h 54m Houston IAH 20:06 → TUL 21:59UA 1927 7h 59m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SLC 18:05 → DFW 21:41AA 1456 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531 4h 42m 58% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON