Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 741 SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 904 SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 741 Delta Flight history →	SMF 06:30	ATL 14:09	7%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 769 Delta Flight history →	SMF 22:56	ATL 06:32	12%	3%	0.9%	95%
DL 904 Delta Flight history →	SMF 12:21	ATL 20:05	12%	4%	0.8%	91%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SMF 05:58 → SLC 08:42DL 1526	1h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	6h 41m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	SMF 19:20 → SLC 22:02DL 2585	1h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	6h 54m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	6h 37m	93%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON