tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 13:00, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3895 Southwest SMF 23:04 BNA 05:15 13% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 25m Denver DEN 09:47 → BNA 13:35UA 355 6h 35m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 18:24 → SAN 20:05WN 3670 2h 34m San Diego SAN 22:39 → BNA 04:35 +1WN 3626 8h 11m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:58 → SLC 08:42DL 1526 1h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 09:56 → BNA 14:17DL 2214 6h 19m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 14:15 → LAX 15:52DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 1h 49m Los Angeles LAX 17:41 → BNA 23:40DL 858 7h 25m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → SMF 13:00 → SEA 15:09DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Seattle SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815 8h 54m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843 6h 37m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 2h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 14:44 → BNA 19:04DL 2205 7h 19m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:08 → SFO 15:32UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m San Francisco SFO 18:34 → BNA 00:51 +1UA 1291 8h 43m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:15 → IAH 19:10UA 1949 53m Houston IAH 20:03 → BNA 22:25UA 750 7h 10m 69% 52%
AmericanDetails → SMF 14:29 → DFW 19:57AA 2078 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:51 → BNA 22:50AA 3230 6h 21m 63% 41%
AmericanDetails → SMF 13:08 → PHX 15:12AA 1677 55m Phoenix PHX 16:07 → BNA 21:27AA 1370 6h 19m 57% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON