Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 3712 at 22:01, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3712 Southwest	SMF 22:01	EUG 23:30	21%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 17m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest	6h 31m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	5h 05m	91%	75%
United Details →	SMF 14:08 → SFO 15:32UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m San Francisco	SFO 18:58 → EUG 20:36UA 363	6h 28m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	SMF 13:00 → SEA 15:09DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Seattle	SEA 16:12 → EUG 17:39DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	4h 39m	86%	73%
Southwest Details →	SMF 10:46 → LAS 12:16WN 1940	48m Las Vegas	LAS 13:04 → EUG 15:12WN 2065	4h 26m	76%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SMF 11:57 → PDX 13:44AS 3003 · flown by SkyWest	46m Portland	PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m	70%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON