tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1276 at 08:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1276 Southwest SMF 08:59 GEG 10:58 7% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 3915 Southwest SMF 21:48 GEG 23:48 17% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 15m Denver DEN 11:37 → GEG 13:02UA 295 8h 02m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 11:57 → PDX 13:44AS 3003 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Portland PDX 17:29 → GEG 18:41AS 452 6h 44m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 3h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 16:25 → GEG 17:12DL 1503 7h 27m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:58 → SLC 08:42DL 1526 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452 6h 14m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 14:04 → SEA 16:11DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest 3h 46m Seattle SEA 19:57 → GEG 21:13DL 3677 · flown by SkyWest 7h 09m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 22:43 → GEG 23:29DL 1466 6h 29m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:21 → LAX 10:58DL 3700 · flown by SkyWest 2h 02m Los Angeles LAX 13:00 → GEG 15:35DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → SMF 13:00 → SEA 15:09DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Seattle SEA 17:59 → GEG 19:15DL 3832 · flown by SkyWest 6h 15m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SMF 19:41 → SEA 21:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest 48m Seattle SEA 22:45 → GEG 23:55DL 2354 4h 14m 66% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON