tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3916 Southwest SMF 09:07 HNL 11:49 16% 2% 0.5% no record
AS 819 Alaska Flight history → SMF 08:27 HNL 11:13 26% 4% 0.8% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:08 → SFO 15:32UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 10h 35m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 14:15 → LAX 15:52DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 10h 07m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:51 → LAX 09:32UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m Los Angeles LAX 13:19 → HNL 16:26UA 1224 11h 35m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:58 → SLC 08:42DL 1526 3h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 21m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 38m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 13h 13m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:21 → LAX 10:58DL 3700 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 10h 22m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:06 → LAX 07:53AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest 1h 47m Los Angeles LAX 09:40 → HNL 12:51AA 31 9h 45m 97% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959 3h 11m Kahului OGG 14:07 → HNL 14:59AS 1425 9h 29m 99% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:08 → SFO 15:32UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 1h 13m San Francisco SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509 8h 17m 72% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON