Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1742 United Flight history →	SMF 08:09	IAD 16:15	12%	3%	0.8%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 18:47 → LAX 20:39UA 5628 · flown by SkyWest	2h 49m Los Angeles	LAX 23:28 → IAD 07:18 +1UA 418	9h 31m	100%	83%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 58m Denver	DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087	7h 53m	99%	82%
United Details →	SMF 07:53 → LAX 09:33UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m Los Angeles	LAX 13:29 → IAD 21:40UA 1164	10h 47m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	9h 20m	99%	78%
United Details →	SMF 18:37 → DEN 21:59UA 1841	2h 00m Denver	DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924	7h 50m	94%	78%
United Details →	SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863	3h 56m Houston	IAH 14:57 → IAD 19:17UA 1178	11h 02m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:30DL 2902	9h 00m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:11 → SEA 13:10DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	1h 42m Seattle	SEA 14:52 → IAD 22:53DL 541	8h 42m	95%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SMF 20:20 → SFO 21:25UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → IAD 06:58 +1UA 2837	7h 38m	72%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON