tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:58, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2863 United Flight history → SMF 05:15 IAH 11:01 8% 3% 0.8% 93%
UA 1949 United Flight history → SMF 13:15 IAH 19:10 20% 5% 0.7% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:08 → SFO 15:32UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 08m San Francisco SFO 18:40 → IAH 00:45 +1UA 2464 8h 37m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Los Angeles LAX 09:40 → IAH 15:04DL 1143 7h 04m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → SMF 14:15 → LAX 15:52DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Los Angeles LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287 7h 44m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 9h 36m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 53m Denver DEN 10:15 → IAH 13:38UA 2030 6h 38m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:51 → LAX 09:32UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest 3h 33m Los Angeles LAX 13:05 → IAH 18:23UA 1084 8h 32m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299 6h 08m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → SMF 10:13 → LAX 11:49UA 6021 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Los Angeles LAX 15:19 → IAH 20:44UA 2765 8h 31m 94% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:08 → SFO 15:32UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → IAH 22:52UA 2305 6h 44m 71% 55%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961 48m Denver DEN 17:14 → IAH 20:38UA 1587 5h 38m 68% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON