tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via LAX, leaving 11:17, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Lihue on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest 1h 49m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 9h 24m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:11 → SEA 13:10DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Seattle SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345 10h 47m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 38m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 13h 37m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:08 → LAX 07:54AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest 1h 25m Los Angeles LAX 09:19 → LIH 12:38AA 119 9h 30m 96% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959 1h 20m Kahului OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049 7h 36m 95% 70%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 54m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697 11h 36m 98% 69%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:27 → HNL 11:14AS 819 1h 55m Honolulu HNL 13:09 → LIH 14:03AS 1083 8h 36m 95% 65%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:33UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684 8h 32m 78% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON