Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4372 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4372 SMF 06:09 → SAN 07:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3670 SMF 18:24 → SAN 20:05 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4372 Southwest	SMF 06:09	SAN 07:51	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4373 Southwest	SMF 07:59	SAN 09:41	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4374 Southwest	SMF 09:04	SAN 10:46	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 9000 Southwest	SMF 08:50	SAN 10:31	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 490 Alaska	SMF 06:58	SAN 08:38	17%	3%	1.1%	no record
OO 3330 SkyWest	SMF 10:17	SAN 12:03	21%	11%	0.9%	no record
WN 4869 Southwest	SMF 11:37	SAN 13:17	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2939 Southwest	SMF 12:20	SAN 14:01	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 3410 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 19:59	SAN 21:44	24%	7%	1.0%	67%
WN 4768 Southwest	SMF 12:39	SAN 14:21	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
QX 2208 Horizon	SMF 08:57	SAN 10:36	25%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 4921 Southwest	SMF 21:00	SAN 22:40	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
OO 3360 SkyWest	SMF 14:52	SAN 16:38	27%	8%	0.9%	no record
AS 350 Alaska	SMF 17:20	SAN 18:58	28%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 296 Southwest	SMF 15:14	SAN 16:55	28%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3151 Southwest	SMF 13:29	SAN 15:11	29%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 258 Southwest	SMF 16:29	SAN 18:10	31%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3106 Southwest	SMF 19:09	SAN 20:50	31%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 3670 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 18:24	SAN 20:05	33%	9%	0.6%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON