Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 2319 at 08:11, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2319 Southwest	SMF 08:11	SBA 09:38	6%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 05:58 → SLC 08:42DL 1526	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 01m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	6h 18m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest	5h 05m	92%	85%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	3h 22m Phoenix	PHX 11:17 → SBA 13:03AA 3256	7h 03m	98%	78%
United Details →	SMF 07:51 → LAX 09:32UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 12:48 → SBA 13:43UA 5893 · flown by SkyWest	5h 52m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	SMF 11:23 → SEA 13:16AS 1365	2h 12m Seattle	SEA 15:28 → SBA 18:00AS 468	6h 37m	99%	70%
American Details →	SMF 13:08 → PHX 15:12AA 1677	1h 24m Phoenix	PHX 16:36 → SBA 18:21AA 3900 · flown by Envoy	5h 13m	85%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON