tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 3985 at 15:19, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3985 Southwest SNA 15:19 AUS 20:16 21% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 13:17 → AUS 17:02DL 2689 7h 47m 97% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750 1h 06m Portland PDX 10:30 → AUS 16:38AS 540 7h 38m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:41 → DFW 15:41AA 2114 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:41 → AUS 18:50AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 6h 09m 94% 74%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:09 → IAH 13:45UA 700 2h 35m Houston IAH 16:20 → AUS 17:27UA 1711 7h 18m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:05 → IAH 17:41UA 2044 2h 37m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 7h 20m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → SNA 15:05 → IAH 20:27UA 643 1h 48m Houston IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179 6h 07m 93% 72%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 3h 26m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 8h 03m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491 8h 34m 95% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:09 → IAH 13:45UA 700 46m Houston IAH 14:31 → AUS 15:35UA 2483 5h 25m 66% 50%
AmericanDetails → SNA 14:27 → DFW 19:37AA 2465 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707 5h 10m 64% 41%
UnitedDetails → SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26UA 1352 47m Chicago ORD 21:13 → AUS 23:57UA 312 7h 47m 41% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON