Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2186 at 21:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 2186 SNA 21:15 → EWR 05:33 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1559 SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2186 United Flight history →	SNA 21:15	EWR 05:33	12%	5%	2.4%	90%
UA 661 United Flight history →	SNA 06:45	EWR 15:21	13%	5%	1.4%	91%
UA 1559 United Flight history →	SNA 12:29	EWR 20:56	40%	27%	2.0%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SNA 19:28 → PHX 20:56AA 2471	1h 18m Phoenix	PHX 22:14 → EWR 06:00 +1AA 2156	7h 32m	76%	55%
United Details →	SNA 14:10 → ORD 20:26UA 1352	1h 27m Chicago	ORD 21:53 → EWR 01:01 +1UA 1209	7h 51m	85%	53%
United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489	1h 32m Denver	DEN 13:41 → EWR 19:35UA 1505	7h 50m	94%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON