Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 08:00 → MSP 13:39DL 2185	3h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 17:02 → MDW 18:43DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	8h 43m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	SNA 11:36 → ATL 19:01DL 1521	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:44 → MDW 22:47DL 1076	9h 11m	91%	71%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	56m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	7h 30m	86%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON