Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2185 Delta Flight history →	SNA 08:00	MSP 13:39	14%	4%	1.0%	85%
DL 626 Delta	SNA 13:24	MSP 19:04	26%	9%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SNA 07:00 → PDX 09:24AS 750	2h 22m Portland	PDX 11:46 → MSP 17:03AS 332	8h 03m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	SNA 12:57 → SEA 15:37AS 548	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 18:38 → MSP 23:53AS 527	8h 56m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	SNA 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1185	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	5h 25m	87%	74%
Delta Details →	SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:15 → MSP 00:50 +1DL 8803	5h 47m	89%	74%
Delta Details →	SNA 06:45 → ATL 14:19DL 721	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654	9h 33m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	SNA 14:00 → ATL 21:38DL 329	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	8h 39m	86%	71%
United Details →	SNA 12:05 → IAH 17:41UA 2044	2h 20m Houston	IAH 20:01 → MSP 23:12UA 1872	9h 07m	95%	71%
Delta Details →	SNA 09:50 → SLC 12:46DL 1198	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936	5h 42m	92%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SNA 15:11 → SEA 17:52AS 760	46m Seattle	SEA 18:38 → MSP 23:53AS 527	6h 42m	52%	40%
United Details →	SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56UA 1559	59m Newark	EWR 21:55 → MSP 23:59UA 1331	9h 30m	59%	34%
American Details →	SNA 08:51 → ORD 15:04AA 2590	54m Chicago	ORD 15:58 → MSP 17:29AA 4746 · flown by Republic	6h 38m	64%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON