tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4024 Southwest SRQ 11:29 BNA 12:33 9% 2% 1.0% no record
WN 4025 Southwest SRQ 20:29 BNA 21:34 18% 8% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 09:36 → BNA 09:48DL 1155 4h 48m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 26m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 14:28 → BNA 14:40DL 790 4h 39m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:06DL 3115 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → BNA 20:35DL 3002 5h 11m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 1h 47m Newark EWR 10:40 → BNA 12:08UA 2776 7h 08m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 09:36 → CLT 11:30AA 2264 1h 41m Charlotte CLT 13:11 → BNA 13:34AA 1295 4h 58m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 13:20 → ATL 15:02DL 3104 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 6h 32m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 16:38 → DFW 18:24AA 2679 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:51 → BNA 22:50AA 3230 7h 12m 93% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SRQ 12:15 → EWR 15:08UA 2612 57m Newark EWR 16:05 → BNA 17:46UA 2454 6h 31m 72% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON