Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1521 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 1521 SRQ 05:57 → CLT 07:51 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4221 SRQ 17:29 → CLT 19:19 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1521 American	SRQ 05:57	CLT 07:51	6%	3%	1.7%	no record
AA 2264 American Flight history →	SRQ 09:36	CLT 11:30	9%	3%	1.7%	92%
AA 3328 American	SRQ 13:50	CLT 15:50	17%	5%	2.4%	no record
MQ 4221 Envoy	SRQ 17:29	CLT 19:19	26%	8%	5.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON