tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 2679 at 16:38, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2679 American Flight history → SRQ 16:38 DFW 18:24 30% 11% 3.7% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961 6h 12m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414 6h 40m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:54 → MIA 08:02AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 34m Miami MIA 09:36 → DFW 11:34AA 1824 5h 40m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → DFW 15:21DL 921 5h 20m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 09:36 → CLT 11:30AA 2264 3h 34m Charlotte CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709 8h 22m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:06DL 3115 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 20:06 → DFW 21:30DL 3161 6h 06m 96% 68%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 13:20 → ATL 15:02DL 3104 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 18:10 → DFW 19:30DL 1827 7h 10m 99% 68%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 12:10 → DCA 14:32AA 2584 2h 35m Washington DCA 17:07 → DFW 19:43AA 655 8h 33m 94% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON