Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:04, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 29m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	6h 14m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 14:41 → IAH 15:53DL 1223	5h 52m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	6h 35m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:06DL 3115	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	6h 00m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	SRQ 13:20 → ATL 15:02DL 3104	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → IAH 20:13DL 2327	7h 53m	99%	71%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	2h 00m Newark	EWR 10:53 → IAH 13:38UA 556	8h 38m	97%	71%
American Details →	SRQ 09:36 → CLT 11:30AA 2264	3h 48m Charlotte	CLT 15:18 → IAH 17:14AA 2364	8h 38m	97%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SRQ 14:30 → LGA 17:30DL 2412	59m New York	LGA 18:29 → IAH 21:44DL 2109	8h 14m	63%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON