Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 2412 at 14:30, with a 35% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2412 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 14:30	LGA 17:30	35%	23%	5.4%	82%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	51m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → LGA 10:41DL 513	4h 41m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	5h 38m	98%	75%
American Details →	SRQ 06:54 → MIA 08:02AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	59m Miami	MIA 09:01 → LGA 11:53AA 2061	4h 59m	93%	68%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	49m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	4h 49m	87%	58%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:06DL 3115	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:28 → LGA 23:34DL 520	7h 10m	99%	52%
Delta Details →	SRQ 13:20 → ATL 15:02DL 3104	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	7h 07m	99%	49%
Delta Details →	SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 21:40 → LGA 23:48DL 9961	5h 26m	87%	45%
American Details →	SRQ 09:36 → CLT 11:30AA 2264	3h 25m Charlotte	CLT 14:55 → LGA 16:45AA 2068	7h 09m	97%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON