tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4872 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4872 Southwest SRQ 07:19 MCO 08:14 4% 1% 1.2% no record
WN 1376 Southwest SRQ 18:19 MCO 19:14 20% 10% 2.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658 4h 57m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030 5h 56m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 1h 08m Newark EWR 10:01 → MCO 12:54UA 1739 6h 54m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 22:51 → MCO 00:21 +1DL 1162 5h 59m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 13:58 → MCO 15:25DL 1372 4h 24m 95% 71%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 13:20 → ATL 15:02DL 3104 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → MCO 20:35DL 2881 7h 15m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:06DL 3115 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 20:15 → MCO 21:53DL 1735 5h 29m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 09:36 → CLT 11:30AA 2264 1h 39m Charlotte CLT 13:09 → MCO 14:45AA 2877 5h 09m 97% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON