Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4031 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4031 Southwest	SRQ 06:09	MDW 08:05	6%	2%	1.4%	no record
WN 2484 Southwest	SRQ 17:09	MDW 19:07	24%	9%	4.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	5h 05m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	5h 52m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 14m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:06DL 3115	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 21:44 → MDW 22:47DL 1076	7h 23m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON