Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: YX 3698 at 12:08 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 43%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 3698 Republic	SRQ 12:08	ORD 14:18	28%	13%	3.0%	no record
UA 1744 United	SRQ 16:23	ORD 18:36	43%	21%	2.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147	5h 10m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	6h 31m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894	6h 30m	99%	72%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	1h 31m Newark	EWR 10:24 → ORD 12:06UA 1525	7h 06m	97%	67%
American Details →	SRQ 16:38 → DFW 18:24AA 2679	3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → ORD 00:00 +1AA 1894	8h 22m	96%	62%
American Details →	SRQ 09:36 → CLT 11:30AA 2264	1h 40m Charlotte	CLT 13:10 → ORD 14:21AA 2530	5h 45m	97%	56%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → ORD 16:35DL 2738	6h 34m	98%	56%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:06DL 3115	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 19:37 → ORD 20:48DL 1139	5h 24m	89%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON