Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2758 American	SRQ 19:40	PHL 22:28	23%	10%	2.3%	no record
OH 5136 PSA	SRQ 15:36	PHL 18:30	27%	14%	4.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	4h 57m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 20m	99%	83%
American Details →	SRQ 06:54 → MIA 08:02AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	1h 13m Miami	MIA 09:15 → PHL 12:10AA 551	5h 16m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:06DL 3115	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 20:21 → PHL 22:24DL 1174	6h 00m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 37m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	1h 19m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	5h 03m	95%	71%
American Details →	SRQ 09:36 → CLT 11:30AA 2264	2h 32m Charlotte	CLT 14:02 → PHL 15:50AA 2573	6h 14m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	SRQ 13:20 → ATL 15:02DL 3104	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 18:23 → PHL 20:26DL 2065	7h 06m	99%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON