Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 4033 at 14:03, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4033 Southwest	SRQ 14:03	STL 15:39	16%	4%	1.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 10:09 → STL 11:00DL 1400	6h 00m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → STL 13:03DL 566	6h 59m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SRQ 18:22 → ATL 20:13DL 3109	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 31m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → STL 16:06DL 543	6h 05m	98%	73%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	1h 04m Newark	EWR 09:57 → STL 11:38UA 2311	6h 38m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	SRQ 13:20 → ATL 15:02DL 3104	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	5h 33m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:24 → ATL 18:06DL 3115	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 19:12 → STL 20:03DL 2833	4h 39m	83%	61%
American Details →	SRQ 16:38 → DFW 18:24AA 2679	3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:01 → STL 23:57AA 1445	8h 19m	97%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SRQ 14:30 → LGA 17:30DL 2412	1h 11m New York	LGA 18:41 → STL 20:30DL 4926 · flown by Endeavor	7h 00m	75%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON