tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4049 at 10:16 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4049 Southwest STL 10:16 CLE 12:56 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3210 Southwest STL 19:54 CLE 22:36 25% 9% 3.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 40m Detroit DTW 12:44 → CLE 13:43DL 5359 · flown by Endeavor 6h 13m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:37DL 1524 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 4h 32m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 13:12 → CLE 15:00DL 775 6h 52m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:04 → ATL 12:56DL 1571 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 14:17 → CLE 16:03DL 2545 4h 59m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:30 → CLT 09:21AA 1515 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 12:01 → CLE 13:37AA 568 6h 07m 94% 74%
UnitedDetails → STL 05:55 → ORD 07:19UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 3h 33m Chicago ORD 10:52 → CLE 13:22UA 2389 6h 27m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:54 → DTW 16:30DL 1371 1h 17m Detroit DTW 17:47 → CLE 18:48DL 4954 · flown by Endeavor 3h 54m 91% 72%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:53 → ATL 16:43DL 566 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 20:37 → CLE 22:24DL 1339 7h 31m 99% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → STL 17:43 → PHL 21:11AA 3049 52m Philadelphia PHL 22:03 → CLE 23:42AA 981 4h 59m 64% 42%
UnitedDetails → STL 18:56 → ORD 20:20UA 4616 · flown by GoJet 1h 00m Chicago ORD 21:20 → CLE 23:49UA 457 3h 53m 58% 38%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:04 → LGA 16:27DL 4922 · flown by Endeavor 1h 07m New York LGA 17:34 → CLE 19:15DL 5194 · flown by Endeavor 5h 11m 61% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON