Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1371 STL 06:06 → IAH 08:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 6213 STL 13:36 → IAH 15:53 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1371 United Flight history →	STL 06:06	IAH 08:30	14%	5%	1.2%	83%
G7 4595 GoJet	STL 08:31	IAH 10:43	20%	5%	1.4%	no record
UA 652 United	STL 15:42	IAH 17:54	23%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 6213 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	STL 13:36	IAH 15:53	24%	12%	1.3%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON