Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 882 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 44–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 882 STL 05:39 → LGA 09:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4085 STL 15:34 → LGA 18:59 · 51% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 882 Southwest	STL 05:39	LGA 09:04	9%	2%	2.5%	no record
YX 4450 Republic	STL 05:56	LGA 09:31	11%	3%	2.6%	no record
DL 4981 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	STL 07:03	LGA 10:35	20%	6%	3.0%	90%worse than usual
YX 4443 Republic	STL 09:15	LGA 12:51	25%	8%	2.6%	no record
9E 5041 Endeavor	STL 09:58	LGA 13:21	29%	12%	3.3%	no record
WN 479 Southwest	STL 11:04	LGA 14:29	36%	15%	3.1%	no record
DL 4922 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	STL 13:04	LGA 16:27	42%	23%	3.7%	74%worse than usual
WN 4086 Southwest	STL 19:49	LGA 23:14	44%	25%	6.8%	no record
YX 4449 Republic	STL 16:05	LGA 19:41	46%	30%	6.1%	no record
DL 4905 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	STL 17:25	LGA 20:49	48%	29%	7.5%	64%worse than usual
WN 4085 Southwest	STL 15:34	LGA 18:59	51%	30%	4.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON