Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1716 at 04:52 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1716 STL 04:52 → MIA 08:42 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4100 STL 14:24 → MIA 18:10 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1716 American Flight history →	STL 04:52	MIA 08:42	12%	4%	1.0%	96%
AA 477 American	STL 18:10	MIA 22:02	28%	10%	1.1%	no record
WN 4100 Southwest	STL 14:24	MIA 18:10	28%	9%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON