tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 270 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 270 Southwest STL 08:22 MKE 09:44 8% 2% 1.1% no record
WN 1561 Southwest STL 21:50 MKE 23:12 23% 9% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → MKE 11:17DL 561 4h 56m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:37DL 1524 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151 5h 53m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246 6h 42m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:58 → ATL 19:49DL 543 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268 6h 58m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:04 → ATL 12:56DL 1571 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 14:33 → MKE 15:39DL 2152 5h 35m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:52 → MSP 10:35DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 3h 19m Minneapolis MSP 13:54 → MKE 15:09DL 2006 6h 17m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → STL 11:53 → ATL 14:43DL 1400 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → MKE 17:40DL 1206 5h 47m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 2h 57m Detroit DTW 15:50 → MKE 16:02DL 1343 5h 43m 98% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON