Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1315 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1315 STL 05:05 → PHX 06:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 590 STL 14:33 → PHX 15:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1315 Southwest	STL 05:05	PHX 06:34	7%	1%	2.3%	no record
WN 1932 Southwest	STL 09:35	PHX 10:52	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2574 American Flight history →	STL 11:03	PHX 12:49	22%	7%	0.8%	85%
WN 4112 Southwest	STL 14:27	PHX 15:47	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4114 Southwest	STL 22:50	PHX 00:09	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4113 Southwest	STL 17:49	PHX 19:04	30%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 590 American Flight history →	STL 14:33	PHX 15:57	30%	8%	0.8%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON