Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 766 at 10:23, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 766 Southwest	STL 10:23	PNS 12:18	9%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:37DL 1524	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → PNS 12:52DL 1640	6h 52m	99%	87%
American Details →	STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:05 → PNS 11:00AA 3982 · flown by Envoy	5h 28m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	STL 10:04 → ATL 12:56DL 1571	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	5h 09m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	54m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	3h 43m	90%	77%
Delta Details →	STL 13:53 → ATL 16:43DL 566	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → PNS 19:15DL 3021	5h 22m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	STL 16:58 → ATL 19:49DL 543	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:10 → PNS 21:32DL 3086	4h 34m	92%	74%
American Details →	STL 06:22 → DFW 08:20AA 537	2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:00 → PNS 12:59AA 3243	6h 37m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	STL 11:53 → ATL 14:43DL 1400	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	5h 10m	96%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	50m Denver	DEN 11:20 → PNS 15:15UA 8222	6h 09m	68%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON