Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 473 Alaska Flight history →	STL 07:02	SEA 09:17	17%	3%	0.8%	91%
AS 314 Alaska Flight history →	STL 16:42	SEA 18:58	27%	6%	0.7%	89%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 39m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:37DL 1524	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:17 → SEA 13:26DL 629	9h 26m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626	3h 52m Detroit	DTW 12:56 → SEA 14:43DL 728	10h 13m	99%	77%
United Details →	STL 08:36 → IAD 12:04UA 4506 · flown by GoJet	1h 08m Dulles	IAD 13:12 → SEA 16:05UA 1824	9h 29m	91%	77%
Delta Details →	STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363	3h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	8h 35m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	STL 10:04 → ATL 12:56DL 1571	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	11h 01m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868	3h 53m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	10h 23m	99%	74%
United Details →	STL 06:06 → IAH 08:30UA 1371	3h 33m Houston	IAH 12:03 → SEA 14:39UA 2228	10h 33m	99%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON