tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:21, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 573 United STL 07:04 SFO 09:29 17% 7% 0.6% no record
WN 4931 Southwest STL 08:29 SFO 10:48 21% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 48m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 42m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:36 → IAD 12:04UA 4506 · flown by GoJet 2h 47m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 11h 02m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:58 → ATL 19:49DL 543 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 23:14 → SFO 01:06 +1DL 656 10h 08m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:37DL 1524 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 7h 33m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 11m Detroit DTW 12:15 → SFO 14:17DL 469 9h 47m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:30 → CLT 09:21AA 1515 2h 32m Charlotte CLT 11:53 → SFO 14:15AA 398 9h 45m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 2h 55m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 8h 03m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 51m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 5h 58m 70% 55%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:14 → LAX 08:23AA 6480 · flown by SkyWest 53m Los Angeles LAX 09:16 → SFO 10:46AA 6277 · flown by SkyWest 6h 32m 57% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON