Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 4127 at 14:54, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4127 Southwest	STL 14:54	SRQ 18:24	18%	7%	2.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 16:58 → ATL 19:49DL 543	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	6h 47m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:37DL 1524	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → SRQ 12:25DL 3104	5h 25m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:39 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115	7h 14m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	STL 13:53 → ATL 16:43DL 566	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → SRQ 21:31DL 1057	6h 38m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	STL 10:04 → ATL 12:56DL 1571	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	6h 13m	98%	79%
American Details →	STL 06:30 → CLT 09:21AA 1515	2h 01m Charlotte	CLT 11:22 → SRQ 13:25AA 3328	5h 55m	92%	72%
United Details →	STL 08:57 → ORD 10:21UA 4601 · flown by GoJet	1h 47m Chicago	ORD 12:08 → SRQ 16:02UA 2287	6h 05m	86%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON