tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:37DL 1524 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 10:42 → VPS 11:00DL 2048 5h 00m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:58 → ATL 19:49DL 543 3h 26m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 6h 31m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:04 → ATL 12:56DL 1571 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 14:32 → VPS 14:53DL 2832 4h 49m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:53 → ATL 16:43DL 566 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 6h 56m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 11:53 → ATL 14:43DL 1400 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 17:58 → VPS 18:16DL 2803 6h 23m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:44 → VPS 11:49AA 3089 6h 17m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:30 → CLT 09:21AA 1515 2h 17m Charlotte CLT 11:38 → VPS 12:29AA 5165 · flown by PSA 5h 59m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → STL 09:24 → CLT 12:18AA 2497 2h 53m Charlotte CLT 15:11 → VPS 16:00AA 5201 · flown by PSA 6h 36m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → STL 16:58 → ATL 19:49DL 543 46m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 3h 51m 74% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON