Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, OO 3032 at 15:26, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3032 SkyWest	STS 15:26	ONT 17:09	17%	9%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	STS 18:37 → PDX 20:26AS 3371 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Portland	PDX 21:32 → ONT 23:57AS 534	5h 20m	90%	73%
American Details →	STS 16:27 → PHX 18:37AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	2h 54m Phoenix	PHX 21:31 → ONT 22:58AA 1238	6h 31m	100%	68%
American Details →	STS 13:11 → PHX 15:21AA 4114 · flown by Envoy	1h 53m Phoenix	PHX 17:14 → ONT 18:41AA 1666	5h 30m	92%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON