Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 2684 at 13:14, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2684 American Flight history →	STT 13:14	CLT 17:07	20%	4%	0.8%	90%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 14:56 → ATL 18:51DL 1883	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	9h 02m	98%	83%
American Details →	STT 15:50 → MIA 18:57AA 1391	2h 54m Miami	MIA 21:51 → CLT 23:54AA 2231	8h 04m	98%	71%
American Details →	STT 13:40 → MIA 16:31AA 943	2h 28m Miami	MIA 18:59 → CLT 21:08AA 1577	7h 28m	97%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STT 13:40 → MIA 16:31AA 943	54m Miami	MIA 17:25 → CLT 19:34AA 3194	5h 54m	72%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON