Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:56, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 14:56 → ATL 18:51DL 1883	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	10h 02m	98%	64%
American Details →	STT 15:50 → MIA 18:57AA 1391	3h 03m Miami	MIA 22:00 → EWR 00:59 +1AA 2008	9h 09m	98%	58%
American Details →	STT 13:14 → CLT 17:07AA 2684	2h 59m Charlotte	CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794	8h 58m	96%	47%
American Details →	STT 13:40 → MIA 16:31AA 943	3h 17m Miami	MIA 19:48 → EWR 22:53AA 322	9h 13m	97%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STT 15:50 → MIA 18:57AA 1391	51m Miami	MIA 19:48 → EWR 22:53AA 322	7h 03m	70%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON