tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 4136 at 14:37, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4136 Southwest STT 14:37 MCO 17:48 22% 8% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STT 14:56 → ATL 18:51DL 1883 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 22:51 → MCO 00:21 +1DL 1162 9h 25m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → STT 15:50 → MIA 18:57AA 1391 3h 48m Miami MIA 22:45 → MCO 23:59AA 3174 8h 09m 100% 72%
JetBlueDetails → STT 14:44 → SJU 15:39B6 435 3h 01m San Juan SJU 18:40 → MCO 21:48B6 2134 7h 04m 97% 66%
AmericanDetails → STT 13:14 → CLT 17:07AA 2684 2h 01m Charlotte CLT 19:08 → MCO 20:49AA 1459 7h 35m 93% 63%
AmericanDetails → STT 13:40 → MIA 16:31AA 943 3h 17m Miami MIA 19:48 → MCO 21:07AA 2803 7h 27m 97% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → STT 15:50 → MIA 18:57AA 1391 51m Miami MIA 19:48 → MCO 21:07AA 2803 5h 17m 70% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON