Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2743 at 05:12 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 2743 TPA 05:12 → ATL 06:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2723 TPA 18:39 → ATL 20:45 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2743 Delta	TPA 05:12	ATL 06:49	6%	2%	1.0%	no record
DL 1726 Delta Flight history →	TPA 06:15	ATL 07:50	7%	2%	0.8%	88%
DL 1486 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:30	ATL 09:07	11%	3%	0.8%	91%
WN 866 Southwest	TPA 08:29	ATL 10:08	12%	2%	1.0%	no record
DL 1227 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:14	ATL 12:52	12%	3%	0.9%	86%
DL 744 Delta Flight history →	TPA 08:45	ATL 10:15	12%	3%	0.9%	90%
DL 2605 Delta Flight history →	TPA 10:00	ATL 11:35	12%	4%	0.9%	90%
DL 1587 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:34	ATL 14:10	21%	7%	1.0%	80%
DL 1594 Delta Flight history →	TPA 20:02	ATL 21:49	21%	7%	0.9%	71%
DL 1099 Delta Flight history →	TPA 13:44	ATL 15:23	22%	8%	3.9%	82%
F9 1853 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 07:30	ATL 09:11	24%	7%	1.3%	74%
DL 1525 Delta Flight history →	TPA 15:18	ATL 16:54	25%	7%	1.0%	72%
DL 1425 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:40	ATL 20:17	27%	8%	1.2%	79%
DL 1720 Delta Flight history →	TPA 16:37	ATL 18:14	27%	9%	1.2%	80%
WN 977 Southwest	TPA 18:54	ATL 20:38	29%	9%	1.1%	no record
DL 759 Delta Flight history →	TPA 17:40	ATL 19:15	29%	9%	1.2%	70%
F9 4435 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 12:59	ATL 14:42	34%	15%	1.6%	63%
F9 2723 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 18:39	ATL 20:45	37%	15%	1.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON