Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4156 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4156 TPA 05:39 → CMH 07:59 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4158 TPA 21:54 → CMH 00:14 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4156 Southwest	TPA 05:39	CMH 07:59	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3731 Southwest	TPA 14:42	CMH 17:02	19%	7%	4.4%	no record
MX 1338 Breeze	TPA 16:33	CMH 18:46	23%	6%	2.0%	no record
WN 4158 Southwest	TPA 21:54	CMH 00:14	25%	7%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON