Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1679 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:25	CVG 20:42	25%	9%	1.5%	74%
F9 1381 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 18:53	CVG 21:16	32%	14%	2.4%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	5h 10m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 11:04 → CVG 12:27DL 3149	4h 57m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09DL 2406	1h 31m Boston	BOS 11:40 → CVG 14:07DL 5598 · flown by Republic	7h 07m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	1h 55m Detroit	DTW 13:03 → CVG 14:25DL 5257 · flown by Endeavor	5h 55m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 17:40 → ATL 19:15DL 759	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395	6h 59m	98%	80%
American Details →	TPA 05:50 → MIA 07:03AA 1740	1h 39m Miami	MIA 08:42 → CVG 11:22AA 3472 · flown by Envoy	5h 32m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	5h 11m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → CVG 17:14DL 1008	6h 00m	100%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	TPA 11:04 → LGA 13:41DL 2531	2h 28m New York	LGA 16:09 → CVG 18:17DL 4949 · flown by Endeavor	7h 13m	73%	44%
Delta Details →	TPA 16:25 → LGA 19:26DL 2106	1h 24m New York	LGA 20:50 → CVG 23:00DL 5517 · flown by Endeavor	6h 35m	69%	37%
Delta Details →	TPA 14:45 → LGA 17:44DL 2195	1h 02m New York	LGA 18:46 → CVG 20:56DL 4999 · flown by Endeavor	6h 11m	59%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON