Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2439 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 2439 TPA 06:09 → EWR 08:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 392 TPA 19:09 → EWR 21:52 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2439 United Flight history →	TPA 06:09	EWR 08:53	7%	3%	1.3%	96%
UA 2679 United	TPA 06:53	EWR 09:36	9%	4%	1.4%	no record
UA 2204 United Flight history →	TPA 08:07	EWR 10:51	10%	5%	1.5%	85%
UA 2858 United Flight history →	TPA 10:57	EWR 13:48	20%	8%	1.7%	87%
UA 1321 United Flight history →	TPA 16:25	EWR 19:16	40%	25%	2.4%	94%worse than usual
UA 1117 United	TPA 15:59	EWR 18:37	41%	24%	2.1%	no record
UA 392 United	TPA 19:09	EWR 21:52	43%	28%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON