Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, B6 548 at 19:56, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 548 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 19:56	HPN 22:51	23%	10%	2.0%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:26 → HPN 12:46DL 2973	6h 31m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	3h 15m Detroit	DTW 14:23 → HPN 16:12DL 4658 · flown by Endeavor	7h 42m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 12:10 → HPN 14:33DL 5435 · flown by Endeavor	7h 03m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 13:14 → HPN 16:56DL 4680 · flown by Endeavor	9h 11m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 15:49 → HPN 18:12DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	6h 58m	100%	76%
American Details →	TPA 06:44 → ORD 08:49AA 354	3h 52m Chicago	ORD 12:41 → HPN 15:59AA 4200 · flown by Envoy	9h 15m	97%	69%
American Details →	TPA 13:59 → ORD 16:00AA 2920	3h 39m Chicago	ORD 19:39 → HPN 22:59AA 3752 · flown by Envoy	9h 00m	97%	66%
JetBlue Details →	TPA 13:19 → SJU 16:34B6 1751	1h 10m San Juan	SJU 17:44 → HPN 21:41B6 2602	8h 22m	79%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON