tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Bush, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4174 Southwest TPA 06:24 LAS 08:02 10% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 4216 Southwest TPA 15:59 LAS 17:45 29% 7% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 38m Dulles IAD 13:00 → LAS 15:09UA 2156 9h 09m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945 7h 45m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 1h 53m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 7h 32m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 41m 95% 79%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:44 → HOU 07:01WN 4468 3h 38m Houston HOU 10:39 → LAS 11:50WN 2056 9h 06m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → LAS 17:19DL 659 9h 05m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549 7h 18m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491 3h 13m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 58m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TPA 20:02 → ATL 21:49DL 1594 46m Atlanta ATL 22:35 → LAS 23:56DL 825 6h 54m 68% 52%
AlaskaDetails → TPA 17:51 → SEA 20:28AS 326 51m Seattle SEA 21:19 → LAS 23:45AS 704 8h 54m 49% 32%
UnitedDetails → TPA 16:25 → EWR 19:16UA 1321 55m Newark EWR 20:11 → LAS 22:37UA 1283 9h 12m 55% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON